Chocolate the newest victim of climate change

Do you have a sweet tooth for chocolate? Chocolate, or cocoa, once a symbol of status and wealth, is consumed all over the world today as one of the world’s most popular foods, but it might soon become too expensive to enjoy.

Collectively known as the king of cocoa, West Africa is home to the largest cocoa producers in the world—with Ghana and Ivory Coast supplying two-thirds of the global demand.[1] Climate change however is making it harder and harder to grow cocoa trees. Rising temperatures and more erratic rainfall patterns for instance are prolonging dry seasons, which are killing off important soil micro-organisms and reducing size and yield of cocoa beans.[2] Frequency of disease and pest infestations and bushfire outbreaks have also increased, stunting cocoa tree growth and destroying plantations. While cocoa farmers are trying to adapt by planting other fast-growing fruit trees to provide shading,[3] areas prime for growing cocoa may become unsuitable in the near future.[4]

Some cacao fruits showing signs of black pod disease caused by fungal infection (Image source: Paul Ninson/Bloomberg)

Consecutive years of crop failures and poor harvests, along with fears of a continued shortfall, have caused cocoa prices to more than double since the start of the year and quintupling from 2023.[5] Chocolatiers are not only hurting from that though. Prices for sugar—another critical ingredient for chocolate—have also spiked due to climate change impacting production.[6]India, the second largest sugar producer and the world’s biggest consumer, has put a cap on export in an effort to cool domestic prices.[7]

Cocoa spot prices over the past three years (Image source: Business Insider)

For now, the cost isn’t being passed down to consumers like us. This trend unfortunately is also expected to continue as the current pace of decarbonisation is falling far short of addressing climate change. The world broke temperature records in 2023, as the annual average neared dangerously close to the 1.5°C threshold.[8]With many places breaking their respective temperature records in January-March (and Hong Kong just matched the record for the hottest summer solstice[9]), there is a high chance that 2024 will immediately unseat 2023 as the warmest year on record and virtually guaranteed to rank within the top five.[10]In a recent survey, the majority of climate scientists believe that global warming would likely breach 2.5°C by the end of this century.[11]

Significant climate anomalies and events in March 2024 (Image source: NOAA)

Climate change impacts not just chocolate but to global food security.[12] Extreme temperature and weather threatens crop production, leading to potential food shortages and price spikes worldwide. Urgent actions are needed to tackle the climate crisis and ensure a sustainable future for all.